Y2K - Year 2000 Millenium Bug

Some of the Most Interesting Things I've Read About
Y2K - Year 2000

Quick Definition of Y2K.
This won't affect you, huh?
What Y2K means to everyone on Earth.
What sort of signals to watch out for.
Life will still go on.
Links to other informative sites.

Will computers still work in the year 2000?

This webpage was started as a means of compiling all the useful information I found about the Year 2000 Millenium bug, or Y2K. When friends and family started to ask for more, it was easier to direct them to this URL, than to print out copies for everybody! Now, anyone in the world who is interested can find this site, as well. Keep in mind that I am not a computer programmer, just an interested citizen of Planet Earth.

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Quick Definition of Y2K

Y2K refers to the faulty coding that went into the very first computers, and over time, has been perpetuated into present day electrical and computer components. At first, the computer programmers in the early days (1950's or 60's or so) decided to save time and space by only using the last two digits of the year in their operations (1966 would be coded as 66). They were fairly certain that their primitive codes would be replaced long before the century changed. For the most part, I suspect they didn't even think about it.

The primitive codes were not replaced, but the languages were! Computer programmers just built new programs on top of the old ones, and before you know it, we have a recipe for chaos. Some new computers and programs have been modified. Many companies and government agencies are scrambling to fix the millions of lines of codes that run this country. Other nations are just now starting to discover that there is even a problem! One small snag hampers all this - there aren't enough experts who know the old languages who can do the work.

I'll let you draw your own conclusion about that.

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This won't affect you, huh?

Between 1999 and the year 2000, any computer or computer chip that has not been checked and fixed may stop working.

Okay, big deal. What does that have to do with me?

Have you ever thought about how completely dependent we are on things like electricity, indoor plumbing, and grocery stores?

I don't have to worry about that. Y2K is a problem for people with mainframes. This won't affect me.

If you have public utilities piped into your home, this could affect you. If you like using your television, radio, vcr, or stereo, this could affect you. If you like driving your car, going shopping, or flying to vacation spots, this could affect you.

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What Y2K means to everyone on Earth.

To really get a good grasp of the scope of this problem, it would be helpful if you read as much as possible on the subject. If you have the time or interest for that, check out the Links. If not, or if you just want to see what I found interesting, read on... Some text colors are changed for emphasis.

From Understand Y2K in 5 Steps website:

In fact, if you haven't done so already, get your kids to make you a list of everything you would not have if electricity were shut down for a week. Make a list of what you wouldn't have if it were shut off for a month.

A funny side bar to all this has been the devil of a time that IBM has had trying to convince the Arab nations that they were going to have computer problems in the year 2000. All their computers run on a date system based on Mohammed so they thought this was a Christian problem. The fact is, the actual underlying operating system still tracks the date based on the birth of Christ, but translates into the year of Mohammed so as not to offend the Islamic end users. These systems will still crash regardless of what the computer operator sees. (You can just hear their Islamic programmers cursing their compromise with Christian technology.)

Perhaps this will be the West's ultimate dethroning of Hussein in a few years when oil goes back to being worthless without the technology to get it out of the ground or market it once brought to the surface or make or do anything useful with it if it can be shipped out.

From Embedded Logic and Controls website:

Within a typical electric utility, embedded logic control is prevalent in every facet of operation; from load dispatch and remote switchyard breaker control to nuclear power plant safety systems and fossil plant boiler control systems. Whole generating units (generally, gas turbines) are controlled from miles away by personnel adjusting system loads in response to peak demands. Embedded logic control is the dirty little Y2K secret of all production facilities (manufacturing and utilities) that has the most significant potential to bring whole companies to their knees.

From WARNING: YOUR GOVERNMENT MAY SOON BE HELPING YOU website:

I strongly recommend you get as much information off the Net as you can, now. When the government starts getting involved in "solving" the Y2K problem there is a chance that it could view the ability to spread independent sources of information as a threat to public stability. This could lead to a limit on the amount of information you will be able to get in the future off the net.

Of course this is not their only option, but it would not be the first time that the our government has applied drastic security measures in the face of public crises. War-time security measures already in effect would allow the Government to make the mention of Y2K a crime. War-time censorship could become a reality. The precedent exists to do this and they may be setting the stage with the Executive Orders (Presidential decrees) to do just this.

In 8 short months, the experts and government spokesmen have gone from a "No problem we'll fix it!" position; to saying, "Of course we can't fix it all but we can fix the mission critical programs and systems;" to saying, "All business and government agencies must have contingency plans for how to deliver their goods or services should their computers fail."

If this pattern continues, the next shift will be to call for a national contingency plan and perhaps even a world wide contingency plan and those executive orders you just read give sweeping powers to such a government -- Powers that many may believe are necessary if we are to survive at all.

From Significant Dates and Circumstances to Watch for website:

The first task of survival is to think through the different scenarios you might need to survive. This will enable you to plan in a way that hedges your bets so that, if you're wrong about some of the threats you face, you will be able to rebound and deal with the real threats that come along. You can't do this if you don't carefully think through the terrain you will be covering.

Your ability to imagine is your greatest asset. Don't pin your hopes on the stuff you pick to pack. Don't estimate your survival chances based on what you can accumulate.

Fear has driven our society to the point that we have empowered our government to empower their agents though executive orders to seize your food or anything else they think they need. All they need right now is a government agent's statement that there is probable cause that you are doing something that these fears have taught people to get their government to guard against. Should the Y2K fear escalate I don't think that the government will deal with it by denial or a soothing "don't worry." As soon as Y2K is Popular Fear #1, whoever is President will accept the popular demand to do whatever it takes to save Western Civilization. He will respond to the righteous call of the people to suspend all constitutional hindrance to his solving the problem for our children's sake.

As I said, I think this process will begin at least by fall '98 and no later than summer '99. Have you planned to survive the threat of Government aid?

There is a lot more information available on the internet, in the library, and more and more even in your newspaper, about the Y2K situation. With each month that passes, we are drawing closer to a deadline that cannot be extended.

This is not something that will be easily fixed, and definitely won't go away if we just ignore it. The only disagreement is how much will it disrupt our lives?

Will your paychecks still arrive on time, or will there be a few weeks or months before the system is straightened out? Will you still be able to buy groceries at the store, or will you be scratching your head while your children ask for cheeseburgers? Will your bank still be able to transfer funds, make your automatic payments, and let you take cash out of the ATM? Will the electric plant still be able to make electricity? Will the electricity still be able to travel through the lines to your community? Will food shipments leave on time? Will weather forecasts become more or less reliable? One thing is for certain: we'll soon know the answers, and we'll soon know how big this problem is or isn't. What are YOU risking?

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What sort of signals to watch out for From Significant Events to Watch For website Go to this website to learn WHY you should watch for these signals!
Anything that cuts off electricity or actions that indicate that utility insiders think that electricity is going off in a big way. Anything that cuts off transportation or threatens to cut it off like gas rationing or discussion of rationing. Also serious discussion of rationing and anti-hoarding laws should catch your attention. Civil testing of population control measures drunk driving road blocks dramatically increase, nationwide or state wide reserve maneuvers of National Guard increase. The possible closing of the US Nuclear Power plants for y2k non-compliance. The Government will probably delay this as long as they can. It will mean the loss of 20% of all power in the US. Media and government information blitz to the effect that we won't fix things in time calling for martial law and drastic top down survival measures, loud public opinion moving in the direction of order above freedom. Significant events in the financial and political world bank failures, or bank holidays stock market crash, precious metals, availability and price of survival equipment, significant cabinet members and other leaders quitting. Insiders who lose confidence and begin to make personal preparations. Whoever you know is on the inside of their industry of civil service (police, mayor, councilmen, big business owners utility man etc) � ask their advice about Y2k, let them know you're curious. Tell them to keep you in touch if it turns out to be a baddy. But don't sound knowledgeable.

What sort of signals to watch out for
From Significant Events to Watch For website
Go to this website to learn WHY you should watch for these signals!

Anything that cuts off electricity or actions that indicate that utility insiders think that electricity is going off in a big way.
Anything that cuts off transportation or threatens to cut it off like gas rationing or discussion of rationing. Also serious discussion of rationing and anti-hoarding laws should catch your attention.
Civil testing of population control measures drunk driving road blocks dramatically increase, nationwide or state wide reserve maneuvers of National Guard increase.
The possible closing of the US Nuclear Power plants for y2k non-compliance. The Government will probably delay this as long as they can. It will mean the loss of 20% of all power in the US.
Media and government information blitz to the effect that we won't fix things in time calling for martial law and drastic top down survival measures, loud public opinion moving in the direction of order above freedom.
Significant events in the financial and political world bank failures, or bank holidays stock market crash, precious metals, availability and price of survival equipment, significant cabinet members and other leaders quitting.
Insiders who lose confidence and begin to make personal preparations. Whoever you know is on the inside of their industry of civil service (police, mayor, councilmen, big business owners utility man etc) � ask their advice about Y2k, let them know you're curious. Tell them to keep you in touch if it turns out to be a baddy. But don't sound knowledgeable.

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Life will go on.

It's not a matter of whether or not life will go on, or if the human race will survive - at least, not in my opinion. I do think it's a matter of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. I think it is important for everyone to think about how life will go on, how life might be different. Maybe this is all just a bunch of hooey. Maybe Y2K will be remembered as a one-week or even a one-month computer glitch that was quickly resolved. Maybe banks will start having trouble with their transactions, and there could be some currency changes or something. Maybe the lights will go out on January 1, 2000, and it'll be dark for a long, long time. And maybe not.

I think what gets my attention about this situation is that whatever happens to me or my family will rest at my door. I know this exists, and now I must decide what steps, if any, to take. I'd like to keep planning my life as I do now, trusting that IRA's and banks will be intact, that civilization's pleasantries will continue uninterrupted. So anything I do now has to be done with a thought to what if the worst doesn't happen? I don't want to be camping on a mountain, having sold all my earthly possessions and look kinda stupid. However, if the worst does happen and I don't even have a tent, I'll be kicking myself in the butt for a long time to come.....

Okay, so you want to do something? Here are some ideas that other people have suggested. Some may sound pretty common sense to you, and some may sound kinda wild. Something that seems a bit too paranoid to me, might sound rational to you. The point is that you decide, because now you know about it and it's up to you to act on that information.

Think about your need for shelter. Are you in a good spot?
Think about your need for food and water. Do you know how to garden?
Think about your need for warmth or cooling.
Think about your need for safety and security.
Think about your need for liquid finances or other planning.
Think about your need for medications, health care, and first aid availability.
Think about your need for eyeglasses, birth control pills, or even diapers.
Think about your need for social support. Are you friends with your neighbor?
Think about your need for communication. Do you have a radio, or know Morse code?
Think about your preparations - if you tell too many people that you're preparing, you may become a target for future looters and gangs.

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Links to other informative sites

Y2K Chaos One of the most comprehensive sites I've ever seen about Y2K!

It explains the technical problem in a manner I can understand, and provides information as well as suggestions and resources for anyone interested in making a few preparations. The facts are available here, and you are left to reach your own conclusions about the seriousness of Y2K.

The Year 2000 Information Center The other most comprehensive site I've ever seen about Y2K!

This site is tops for its technical information, current news, providing a place for potential employers and potential employees to find each other, and much more. Where the above site is geared towards people like me, I would hope the people at my ISP were visitors to this place.

Year 2000 Test Coordination Site - Center for Computing Systems Engineering Information Clearinghouse Government organization.

Providing information and helpful pointers in the right direction for government and commercial Y2K compliance work. Some stuff is for official eyes only, but it was interesting to me that there's so much work going on behind the scenes about this, but we don't hear much about it in the traditional media.

YEAR 2000 RECESSION? Dr. Edward Yardeni's online book about Y2K.

He explores what the problem actually is, what is being said in the media and among those in the industry, and then breaks down what could happen by sector: electrical power, transportation, the financial industry, the Internal Revenue Service, other government entities, the special problem of embedded chips, global effects, and even what New York City is doing to prepare.

Computerworld's Year 2000 Resources Aimed at the technical people in the trenches and in the board rooms.

From the current feature Don't Just Set Priorities... Put Your Foot Down: "Companies need to learn to prioritize..., and they need the guts to stick with the priorities they set." Check out the latest Computerworld feature articles about Y2K, the scores providing the lastest trends, issues and statistics, and Year 2000 index of news stories.

Commentary By Caspar Weinberger: The Y2K Crisis Editorial article that appeared on the Forbes website

We need to recognize the magnitude of this problem, the cost of not fixing it, and the need for most businesses, large and small, to assign the highest priority to Y2K. If we do so in the next 20 months, American skill, ingenuity and production genius may be able to avoid the worst. Sadly, however, most companies and government agencies are still only surveying the problem, making inventories of what needs to be done and merely talking about it when the problem cries out for action now.

But First, We Kill All The Lawyers... Amusing headline barely lessens the impact of what the article reports.

The working relationship amongst all the computer people in business is being hampered by the legal advice to not talk about problems, lest they tarnish a reputation or leave a company open to some lawsuit. However, if the problems aren't discussed, businesses could be at more risk with less solutions. A quick, thought-provoking read.

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